Let’s talk Draft Strategy. Below is a collection of information (gathered by your Commissioner) that should equip each HumBabe General Manager to make well-educated selections come time for the 2023 First-Year Player Draft.

You only get one pick – better make it a good one!

Let’s start by taking a look at the today’s Top Prospects as listed by MLB.com and where each player was selected in the MLB Draft. This list excludes Prospects that were not selected in a MLB First-Year Player Draft (i.e. International Signees)

If that list is all you have to go off – you should feel pretty good about selecting a Prospect from the 1st Round of the MLB Draft Board. Worth noting however, only half of those names were selected in the first sixteen MLB Draft Picks (16 picks in the HumBabe Draft). So at the very least, we should widen our gaze outside of just the first sixteen names called this Sunday evening. But what really matters here is the reliability of our first data source – MLB’s Top Prospect list. Who’s to say whether James Wood, for example, turns out to be a Boom or a Bust?

Take the data from a few seasons back (so we are looking at players that have solidified their status as either a Boom or Bust) and 2017’s Top Prospect list included 1) Andrew Benintendi, 2) Yoan Moncada, and 6) Alex Reyes. If you’re happy with one of those three guys on your roster, then good for you. Personally, I would have rather claimed 34) Vlad Guerrero Jr., 35) Kyle Tucker, 46) Aaron Judge, 77) Dylan Cease, or 93) Walker Buehler. Now our takeaway might be that the Top Prospect list is worthless, in terms of Draft Strategy prep.

Additional side note from the 2017 Top Prospect list: 38) Josh Hader was a 19th Round Draft Pick and 77) Dylan Cease was a 6th Round Draft Pick. Basing a Draft Strategy on finding diamonds in the rough like that however, not a great one – so let’s see what else we can gather.

What about the Top 10 MLB Draft Selections? Can we at least have trust in seeing those guys turn into legit Fantasy Baseball contributors?

Based on last year’s MLB Draft results, you’ve got a equal chance of landing a Great prospect as you do in landing a Bust. Note that the “Values” shown in these charts are reflective of solely your Commissioner’s current opinion, and still undetermined with the brevity of their professional careers, the number of Busts will most likely grow over time.

2021 Data makes us feel better about landing a Great prospect, but the jury is still out on most of these players. Henry Davis and Colton Cowser are playing for the Big League Clubs just two seasons after hearing their name called on Draft Day and at first glance, appear to have bright futures – that’s a solid return-on-investment.

Now, Spencer Torkelson’s Draft Class is an interesting one. How many of these guys would you want in your HumBabe starting lineup right now? That’s for your discretion as a General Manager, but say you’re given the additional insight that Spencer Strider was a member of this 2020 Draft Class (4th Round Pick, 126th Overall), then who would you want to spend your single draft selection on? After all, the FYP Draft is your opportunity to lay claim to the next Spencer Strider and secure him long-term.

This Draft Class is an outlier, but there’s still knowledge to be gained from it. Littered with Franchise-altering talent (Rutschman, Witt Jr., Jung, etc.) and you still find notable Busts within the first ten picks. Be honest, did you know that JJ Bleday (a Miami Marlins draft pick) is now in the Oakland Athletics’ outfield? A platooned bat in the Athletics lineup with a .182 Career Batting Average is not what we are looking to collect with a FYP Draft Selection, but in 2019, your perception would have been that he was the fourth best available option in the Player Pool.

Take a step back after digesting all of that information and you come away knowing that MLB’s 1st Round Picks are likely to become Top Prospects during their minor league careers but just that is no guarantee that they will end up producing in your Fantasy lineup. You know that the HumBabe Dynasty First-Year Player Draft Board should not mirror the MLB Draft Board – there are going to be Busts within the first sixteen picks. But ultimately, you’ve consumed all of this information and you still feel the weight of knowing that you’ll be asked to make a solid selection next week.

Ok, so how do you find a Draftee worth investing in? At this point you’re saying, “You’ve put this big long, spreadsheet-filled, post together Mr. Commish… are you going to tell me how to pick the next Spencer Strider or not?!” Well, I’d respond by reminding you that the Orlando Splitters have yet to add their logo to the HumBabe Championship Banner and need every competitive advantage they can get (especially from the bottom of the FYP Draft Order). So with that…

I’ve got my Draft Strategy, do you?