Draft Lottery Preview

Each offseason, the HumBabe Dynasty League (HDL) goes through some turnover of an unpredictable magnitude – where a select few General Managers decide to leave the League and new GM’s are found to fill their void. Typically, a Dynasty Fantasy Baseball League would ask those new GM’s to inherit the vacated rosters exactly as they are, immediately putting them at a slight disadvantage when compared to the teams that have been building their roster for multiple years. Good news: The HDL is not your typical League. New HumBabe GM’s experience a much more fair, fun and engaging process to create their initial roster; highlighted by the New Manager Draft.

2022’s offseason turnover totaled four vacated rosters, so those four twenty-five player rosters have been combined with the current HDL Free Agents and are made available to the new GM’s during their Draft. There, they will select their fifteen MLB Keeper Players and fill their seven Minor League roster spots – bringing them up to par with what every other HDL Team transfers from season to season.

Another interesting aspect of the HumBabe Dynasty League onboarding process: the Draft Lottery. The four new 2022 GM’s have replaced the 7th, 11th, 13th and 16th Place Teams according to the 2021 Final Regular Season Standings. Instead of assigning each new GM with one of the wide ranging possible Free Agent/Rookie (FAR) Draft positions, they are entered into a Draft Lottery. Each Draft Lottery looks a little different, primary based on the variable of how many New GM’s are there. From 2019 to 2020, five GM’s were replaced, from 2020 to 2021 just two New GM’s were needed and now, going into 2022, we have a total of four. So how does the Commissioner operate this moving equation each offseason?

Determining the Odds

The Commissioner’s goal for the Draft Lottery is to make the process of joining the HDL as fair and engaging as possible for New General Managers. The first step towards that goal is giving the New Manager’s a fair opportunity to win the 1st Overall Pick in their first HDL FAR Draft – a substantial prize, given the FAR Draft is a fixed draft order and not your typical serpentine. But for the 2022 Draft Lottery, that technically means the 7th Place finisher in 2021 (a playoff team, now owned by a new GM) has been given a significantly greater chance to move up the Draft Board than the 8th Place returning General Manager. So the odds, or percentage chance, given to the New Manager’s is averaged. Speaking to the specifics of 2022, the average odds to win the 1st Pick for the 7th (1% odds), 11th (5%), 13th (13%) and 16th (25%) Place teams works out to be 11%. That places them with lower odds than two returning GM’s, the Super Smash Stros (21%) and the London Bag Club (17%) – but New GM’s are awarded a fair chance to win the 1st Pick remember? Therefore, those two returning teams enter the average as well. Bumping all six of the referenced teams to holding a 13.7% chance.

Determining the Participants

The HumBabe Dynasty League Draft Lottery is not confined to a certain number of participating teams each offseason, rather, that is also determined based on the 2021 finish of the vacated teams. In short, because the 7th Place Team has a New GM at the helm, every team with a worse Regular Season finish (7th through 16th) enters the Lottery. Yes, even though two of those two teams made the playoffs in 2021, they enter the Lottery. That makes a total of ten participating teams in 2022.

2022 Draft Lottery Odds

With all that out of the way… here’s a look at how the 2022 Draft Lottery has been set up. While we’re at it, go ahead and welcome the Florida Squeeze, Canadian Moose Mounties and Hairy Tubman to the HumBabe Dynasty League. “Team SE” is our fourth new General Manager, but like Straight Outta deGrompton, would like the ability to potential brand his Team after one of his star players. Welcome aboard gentlemen!

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